Matt Thomson – Fathom Realty Colorado
Castle Rock real estate had our most explosive months of home sales yet. We have all heard the media reports about the crazy market, but what does it actually look like? Let’s take a look at housing in Castle Rock in a few different areas. I’ll separate out single family homes, Condos and Townhomes, and the Luxury Market (homes over $900,000, which would be the highest 10% of sales).
Castle Rock Real Estate Overview
- 129 homes currently for sale in Castle Rock averaging $1,088,788 with 30 Days On Market average
- 379 homes pending sale in Castle Rock averaging $642,744 with 22 DOM
- 239 homes sold in Castle Rock in May avg $670,402 (105% of asking) with 15 DOM
- 182 homes sold in May 2020, avg $520,308 and 34 DOM
Castle Rock Luxury Home Sales
- 35 luxury homes currently for sale in Castle Rock avg $2,329,363 and 79 DOM
- 39 luxury homes pending sale in Castle Rock averaging $1,451,238 and 52 DOM
- 28 luxury homes sold in Castle Rock in May averaging $1,427,214 (103% of asking) and 28 DOM
- 9 luxury homes sold in May 2020, averaging $1,515,007 and 113 DOM
Castle Rock Single Family Home Sales (under $900,000)
- 84 homes currenlty for sale in Castle Rock avg $651,776 and 10 DOM
- 273 homes pending sale in Castle Rock avg $587,188 and 14 DOM
- 175 homes sold in Castle Rock in May averaging $605,788 (106% of asking) and 8 DOM
- 144 homes sold in Castle Rock in May 2020, avg $498,612 and 30 DOM
Castle Rock Condos and Townhome Sales
- 10 condos currently for sale in Castle Rock averaging $417,676 and 24 DOM
- 70 condos pending sale in Castle Rock averaging $420,663 and 36 DOM
- 38 condos sold in Castle Rock in May averaging $422,400 (105% of asking) and 36 DOM
- 29 condos sold in May 2020, averaging $319,344 and 31 DOM
So what do all of these numbers actually represent? First of all, let’s be clear that there is NOT a housing inventory crisis in Castle Rock…there is a housing demand crisis. The number of homes actually selling has increased 31% YOY (keep in mind, this time last year was the early stages of the pandemic, yet home sales are still high). In order for home sales to increase, the number of homes for sale has to be high as well. The important factor is there are more buyers–about 3x more–than there are sellers. That is our issue.
Consistent with the law of supply and demand, when demand is outpacing supply, prices go up. And Castle Rock home prices are going WAY up. The 29% YOY appreciation is hard to even grasp. Equally as hard to grasp is the sales price to list price ratio. There were 2 homes in the luxury market that sold for 20% over asking…in real money that was $250,000 over asking and $180,000 over asking respectively. That also requires cash, as it is highly likely that the homes didn’t appraise for what they sold for, so the buyers would have brought that amount in cash on top of their down payment.
One of the most common things I hear right now are buyers saying they’re going to wait for the bubble to burst before they buy. Let me show you why that won’t happen. Take a look at this graphic that was shared with me by Nicole Rueth of Fairway Mortgage:
Lawrence Yun is the chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, and those numbers show that Nationally we are in an inventory crisis and Castle Rock is poised to be following suit. This isn’t a blip on the radar. This isn’t simply a seller’s market. We’ve been in a seller’s market for nearly a decade now. This is something we’ve never seen before, and the demand is so far above the supply that there is nothing that looks like it can turn this tide in the next couple of years.
Another common refrain I hear, even from other Realtors, is that we are in for a huge foreclosure wave. This idea makes me angry, because the only way people can get foreclosed on right now is if they’re being given terrible advice and victimized by predatory real estate practices. Yes, the eviction moratorium is coming to an end. Yes, the forebearance period is coming to an end. Yes, that means many people may not have the means to pay their mortgage. And in order to be devastated by a foreclosure, a homeowner would have to owe more money than their home is worth. If you’ve had your mortgage for more than 6 months, you should–with Castle Rock’s appreciation–be able to sell your home and come out on top even after all fees and taxes are paid.
I believe that through real estate, I can help make a tangible difference in our community and our world. For over a decade I’ve been donating a portion of all of my proceeds back into our community – Matt Thomson
Formatted for CRCO Article By: Gary Godfrey